公路工程施工安全事故致因模型构建

为了探究公路施工安全事故诱因及其影响关系,基于"4M"理论和事故致因"2-4"模型,识别公路工程施工安全事故致因因素并确定模型框架,运用SPSS Modeler软件对2007~2017年426起事故进行关联规则挖掘,采取路径分析与重要度分析,构建出公路工程施工安全事故致因模型。结果表明:施工单位内外部原因共同引发公路工程施工安全事故,外部原因来源于建设单位、监理单位和勘察设计单位的安全管理缺失,而施工单位内部影响因素中,人的不安全动作、物的不安全因素、不良的生产环境和自然环境是事故发生的直接原因,无效的安全监管和作业层安全素质及能力不强是间接原因,根本原因是施工程序和技术方案存在缺陷,根源原因是决策层和管理层的安全素质及能力有待提高。该模型系统展现了工程施工项目安全事故致因因素的影响关系和重要程度,为公路工程施工安全事故预防提供指导。

Research on Safety Accident Causation Model in Highway Construction

In order to explore causes of safety accidents in highway construction and relations between them, 4M theory and 24Model are employed to identify the causing factors of safety accidents in highway construction and to establish its model framework. In addition, SPSS Modeler is used to dig up association rules of 426 safety accidents that happened in 2007~2017. On this basis, an accident causation model is established through path analysis and importance analysis. The results show that it is both external and internal factors of the construction units that may cause accidents. External factors include the lack of safety management of development units, supervision units, survey and design units. As for internal factors, there are four aspects. The direct causes are unsafe operation of front-line workers, unsafe factors of things and bad production environment and natural environment. Ineffective regulation and poor safety awareness and capabilities of front-line workers make up the indirect causes. The radical causes lie in flaws of construction program and technical proposals. The root causes require improvement of safety awareness and capabilities from both decision maker and administrator. The model systematically reflects the influence paths and importance of safe accidents causes so that it can provide guidance for accident prevention in highway construction.