The GLASS model: a strategy for quantifying global environmental security

The objective of this paper is to present a strategy for quantifying the link between environmental change and human security. We introduce the concept and preliminary calculations of a new integrated model — the GLASS model (G̱lobal A̱ssessment of S̱ecurity) — designed to link extreme global environmental changes (such as droughts, flooding, and large-scale air pollution episodes) and the risk to society due to these changes. It is hoped that model results can also eventually contribute to designing strategies to lessen security threats. The model takes a unique approach in using coupled submodels for calculating ‘slow’ and ‘fast’ global changes, and how they interact and influence the potential for crisis in society. At the core of the model is the Crisis model which relates environmental stress and susceptibility to the occurrence of crises, such as water shortages or famines. After estimating environmental stress and susceptibility, the model is calibrated to international data of crisis events (such as drought-related water shortages and famines) between 1901 and 1995. Once calibrated, the model is used for scenario analysis of the future long-term potential for environmental crises.