陕西省干旱综合评价预警研究

总结了造成陕西省干旱发生的主要原因以及干旱的区域和季节分布特征，在分析气象干旱和农业干旱指标的基础上提出了陕西省干旱分析评价的综合干旱指标、干旱预警方法以及干旱发生起始日期和持续日数的计算方法，通过采用此指标和方法对陕西省典型年份的干旱分析评价，得出的干旱结果和实际干旱状况相比基本一致，说明运用该综合干旱指标、评价干旱状况方法以及干旱预警方法在陕西省干旱的评价和预警中是可行的。

Research on Drought Synthetic Evaluation and Forecast in Shaanxi

Main causes of drought and characteristics of drought regional and seasonal distribution in Shaanxi are discussed in this paper. Synthetic index to evaluate the drought, method to forecast drought and calculate days of drought duration are given by analyzing the index of drought defined in meteorology and the drought defined in agriculture. Then, the index and method are used to analyze and evaluate typical droughts in Shaanxi. The result is basically same as the actual situation. It shows that the index and method can be used to evaluate and forecast drought in Shaanxi.