基于事故树和模糊层次分析法的飞机火灾事故分析

为了解决飞机火灾事故易发问题、降低事故发生率,以巡航过程中客机发生火灾事故为情境,提出事故树分析法和模糊层次分析法相结合的研究方法。绘制树形图研究人为、机械、环境和管理等方面导致飞机火灾事故发生的途径,构建飞机火灾事故指标体系,结构重要度对指标赋值得出权重值顺序,结果表明:安检和安全培训对飞机火灾事故发生影响最大,空气影响次之,机械故障影响最小。因此,最有效的飞机火灾事故预防途径应从可燃物控制方面着手。

Analysis on Fire Accident of Airplane based on Fault Tree and Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process

In order to prevent airplane fire and reduce the incidence of airplane accident,a research method combining the fault tree analysis and the fuzzy analytical process is proposed based on a circumstances in which an airplane catches on fire.It is concluded that human factors,mechanical factors,environmental factors and management factors are mainly the routes arising to airplane fire accidents through drawing the tree diagram.An evaluation index system for airplane fire accidents is established.The weight value is in order after assigning value to indicators by the structural importance.The results show that security inspection and safety training have the largest impact on airplane fire accidents,followed by air impact,and the smallest impact is mechanical failure.Therefore,the most effective approach for preventing airplane fire accidents is to minimize the proportion of combustibles in the airplane.