基于Tripod-Beta模型的船舶火灾事故风险分析

为深入分析船舶火灾事故风险因素及其后果产生的影响,通过分析1991-2017年全球船舶火灾事故调查报告,从人员、管理、船舶设备、货物、环境5个方面对船舶火灾影响因素进行识别研究;采用三脚架事故致因模型(Tripod-Beta model),构建考虑安全栅的船舶火灾事故情景演化模型,识别船舶火灾关键影响因素;并在样本量较少的情况下,采用信息扩散理论计算船舶火灾发生率;最后,利用布尔函数和风险矩阵,对船舶火灾事故风险进行评价研究。结果表明:船员不安全行为和船舶设备表面过热、设备短路是船舶火灾事故的关键风险因素;事故后果链中安全栅遭到破坏时,船舶火灾风险处于不希望发生范围内。该方法能有效评估船舶火灾风险的等级,满足海事管理部门的监管工作需求。

Overview risk analysis of the ship fire accidents via a Tripod-Beta model

In order to deeply investigate the risk influential factors( RIFs) and the associated consequences of the ship fire accidents,we have collected and analyzed the global maritime investigation reports related to the ship fire accidents from 1991 to 2017. The said RIFs of the ship fire accidents can be analyzed and identified from the following 5 aspects: the crew member qualification,the management level,the ship equipment situation,the cargo they take,and the environment,all of which the ships have to bear and experience with. To achieve the research and analysis goals,we have to try and adopt a Tripod-Beta model to construct the scenario model of the ship fire accidents and take into account the safety barriers to identify the key RIFs of the ship via the Boolean function. At the same time,it is also necessary to obtain the probability value of the basic risk events on the basis of the statistical data of the accident reports to ensure the accuracy of the results to be gained. And,furthermore,we have also collected the related facts,the authentic reasons or causes as the results of the calculation and consideration of why and how the ship fire took place with a few pursvasive samples through mathematical methods of the information diffusion theory. And,finally,the given paper has to take the ship fire as the initial event to develop an accident scenario with the emergency responses as the safety barriers through the Boolean algebra function and risk matrix to assess the risks of such fire accidents. The results of our study indicate that the principal risk-causing factors of the ship fire can be illustrated in the following way: the mindless handling of the ignited cigarette ends,the improper operation of the welding sparkles in the areas under protection,overheating of the ship surface equipment or device,and,or,short circuits of the device or equipment,whose structural indicators of importance might be below 0. 992. At the premise of the ship fire probability being 1. 75 × 10-3,the emergency response of the working personnel on the ship might have a significant impact on the severity of such fire accident consequences. When the above said safety fences of the fire alarm devices go beyond the regular fire control drills,it would be of primary importance to employ the fire fighting devices and/or other kinds of equipment available to protect and get rid of the likely fire with great care. Or,any other available protective measures are to be taken to guard against any reckless actions in dealing with the equipment of extreme validity. Thus,it can be seen that the method we suggest can help to assess the fire risk level of ships most effectively and meet the actual needs of the maritime equipment management departments,which can help to reduce the frequency of the fire accidents on the ships with great practical significance.