基于生态足迹服务价值法的生态承载力时空演化

为了客观地评价生态承载力及其时空演化规律，通过构建以价值量为单位的生态足迹-服务价值法的生态承载力分析框架，选取2000~2015年陕西省97个区县的面板数据，运用全局Moran’s I、LISA集聚图和空间杜宾模型等方法，分析了陕西省生态承载力指数的分布特征、演化路径及驱动因素。研究表明：（1）陕西省及三大地区生态承载力指数先快速升高后缓慢降低，存在显著的空间自相关和空间异质性，低值集聚现象明显，且向关中地区集中。（2）林地面积和当量因子价值是促进生态承载力指数提高的主要因素，人均消费价值是抑制生态承载力指数提升的主要因素。（3）影响陕北、关中和陕南地区生态承载力指数的驱动因素存在差异。因此，陕西省需要加大生态修复工程投入力度，减缓人均消费价值增长速度，实施差异化的生态承载力政策，以达到改善生态承载力的目标。

Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Ecological Carrying Capacity Based on Ecological Footprint Service Value Approach

In order to evaluate the ecological carrying capacity more objectively and universally, construct an ecological capacity analysis framework by applying Footprint Service Value method based on the value unit, we selected the panel data of 97 counties in Shaanxi Province from 2000 to 2015, analyzed the distribution characteristics, the evolution path, and the driving factors of the ecological carrying capacity index for Shaanxi Province using the global Moran’s I, the LISA agglomeration maps, and the spatial Dubin model. Following findings were obtained in this research:(1) the index of ecological carrying capacity in Shaanxi Province and the three major regions rapidly increased at the beginning, and then decreased slowly, which showed significant spatial autocorrelation and spatial heterogeneity, and the low value clustering phenomenon was obvious especially in Guanzhong Region;(2) the value of forest land area and the equivalent factor were the main factors that promoted the increase of the ecological carrying capacity index, while the per capita consumption value was the main factor that inhibited the increase of the ecological carrying capacity index; and(3) there were differences in the driving factors affecting the ecological carrying capacity index in the north of Shaanxi, Guanzhong, and the south of Shaanxi. Therefore, it is necessary to increase the investment in ecological restoration projects in Shaanxi Province, reduce the growth rate of per capita consumption value, and implement a differential ecological carrying capacity policy, so as to achieve the goal of ecological carrying capacity improvement.