基于改进N-K模型的公共建筑火灾风险耦合研究

为了弥补传统N-K模型需要大量统计数据支撑才能应用的局限性,提出了一种改进N-K模型。该模型能在缺少统计数据的情况下,结合层次分析法将事故发生概率替代为风险因素的频度进行风险耦合度计算。将此方法应用于公共建筑火灾风险耦合的研究中,结果表明:耦合风险因素越多,风险值越大;耦合风险因素相同时,建筑因素比设备因素更易造成火灾事故,人员因素比管理因素更易造成火灾事故;主观因素耦合风险比客观因素耦合风险大。分析结果与近些年发生的公共建筑火灾事故比较,关键致因风险及耦合情况与实际总体状况一致,证明了改进N-K模型具有一定理论价值。

Research on Fire Risk Coupling of Public Buildings based on Improved N-K Model

An improved N-K model is proposed to make up for the limitation of traditional N-K model which needs a lot of statistics.This improved model combined with analytic hierarchy process can calculate risk coupling value based on replacing the occurrence of risk factors with the probability of accidents in the absence of statistics.This method is applied to the study of fire risk coupling of public buildings.The result indicates that the risk rises with the increase of coupling factors,complying with the actual objective regularity.Furthermore,building risk factors is more likely to cause fire accident than equipment risk factors when coupling with same quantitative risk factors,as well as,objective factors coupling risk is more serious than subjective factors coupling risk.Lastly,the key risk factors of the analysis and their coupling situation are consistent with the actual situation by comparing the risk analysis results with the public buildings fire accidents in recent years,which shows that the N-K model proposed in this paper has theoretical value.