基于WBS-RBS和PFWA算子的多式联运网络安全风险评估

为了能够评估多式联运网络中的安全风险,提出了一种基于工作分解结构-风险分解结构(WBS-RBS)和勾股模糊加权平均(PFWA)算子的安全风险评估方法。通过专家打分的勾股模糊数(PFLN)替代WBS-RBS的风险矩阵0-1赋值,从全阶段和分阶段两个过程分别对多式联运网络的安全风险排序值进行计算,从而得到安全风险评估结果。最后,以汽车零部件的铁-公-水联运过程为实例进行了验证,从整体上来看,转运区人员的作业不规范行为是整个运输过程中风险最大的因素;从作业的角度来看,转运区管理和安全防护设置管理的风险因素最高,存储区的布局管理则最低;从子风险的角度来看,人员安全意识淡薄和运输过程安全措施不完善导致的风险最高,存储设施引发的风险最低;从整体风险角度来看,5类风险因素按照平均风险值从大到小排序为人员风险、设施设备风险、环境风险、货物自身风险、运输管理风险。

On the safety risk assessment of the multimodal transportation network based on the WBS-RBS and PFWA operator

The given paper is aimed at proposing a safety risk assessment approach based on the framework and structure-risk breakdown by using the Pythagorean fuzzy weighted average operator to evaluate the safety risks in the multimodal transport network.In the said work breakdown structure,it is necessary to analyze the operation procedure flow of the multimodal transport network by taking into account the special transport areas in the multimodal transport network,whereas the"man,machine,cargo,method,and environment"theory can be used to identify the risk factors in the risk breakdown structure system.For this purpose,the risk matrix of 0-1 assignment can be replaced by the expertise scoring Pythagorean fuzzy number to quantify the safeless or reckless factors.And,in so doing,the Pythagorean fuzzy weighted average operator can be taken to calculate the weighted average of the membership degree and the non-membership degree of the Pythagorean fuzzy number,respectively.At the same time,the sort value matrix can be taken to work out the ranking of the value function via the Pythagorean fuzzy weighted average operator as an independent variable.On the other hand,the safety risk ranking data of the multimodal transport network can be deduced separately from the entire process and the staged or phased process so as to gain the safety risk assessment results.And,finally,we have managed to integrate and verify the railway-roadway-waterway intermodal transport system of the auto parts as a case study sample.From the overall points of view,the non-standard behaviors of the transshipment working staffmembers are the chief risk-involving factor in the entire transportation process.But,from the operational point of view,the transshipment area management and that of the safety protection setting should be regarded as the key links,whereas the layout management of the storage areas are the lowest.And,from the perspective of the sub-risks,the weakness of the personnel safety awareness and the reckless safety measures in the transportation process should be responsible for the highest risk.Thus,it can be said that,from the perspective of the overall risk,the following 5 kinds of risk factors can be ordered in a descending order according to their likely risk-exposure degrees:the personnel risk>the facility equipment risk>the environmental risk>the goods risk of their own quality>the transportation management risk.