长江经济带城市协同发展能力研究

协同发展是目前长江经济带建设的重点,但是，目前对协同发展水平进行定量测度的研究较少。依据增长极和复合生态系统等理论，遵循新时期长江经济带发展的指导思想，构建了由科技创新、经济发展、交流服务、生态保护4大领域18个核心指标组成的长江经济带城市协同发展能力评价指标体系，并采用自然断裂点分析、空间自相关分析和规模-位序分析等方法，对长江经济带110个地级及以上城市的协同发展能力进行了系统分析。研究发现：上海、南京、武汉在协同发展能力上表现卓越。从空间分布看，长江经济地城市协同发展能力呈现东高西低的格局，上海的龙头带动作用突出，长江下游地区在总协同指数、经济发展、科技创新、交流服务领域处于领先水平，但在生态保护领域表现一般；长江中游地区除武汉、长沙和南昌等省会城市协同发展能力较高外，在总指数以及4个分领域处于中等水平；长江上游地区在总协同指数以及4个分领域协同能力非常低，仅重庆、成都、昆明、贵阳等城市协同发展能力突出。经济发展水平、交通运输条件和科技创新水平对生态绿色发展的协同能力影响不大，说明长江经济带目前尚未实现生态保护与经济发展、技术进步和黄金水道建设的共赢。因此，未来长江经济带应以“绿色、创新、稳健”为核心思想，推进长江经济带协同发展的顶层设计，加快构建以重要节点城市为核心的分层协同发展机制，推动长江经济带绿色产业的创新协调发展，强化长江经济带生态安全风险的联合防控，提升经济带的协同发展水平。

Study of the Urban Coordinated Development Capbility Index in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

Coordinated development is a major concern in the national strategy of the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB). However, there are few studies which have quantitatively measured the level of coordinated development in the YREB. This paper aims to propose an comprehensive index of coordinated development based on the theories of growth pole and complex ecosystem and new guidelines of development from the central government. The index is composed by 18 indicators within 4 domains including economic development, technology & innovation, communication & transportation, and ecological protection. The scores of coordinated development capability of the 110 prefecture-level cities in the YREB are calculated and examined using natural break point analysis, spatial autocorrelation analysis and rank-size analysis. It is shown that Shanghai, Nanjing and Wuhan are leading the coordinated development in the YREB. Generally, the scores of coordinated development capability are higher in the eastern region of the YREB, in which the cities perform well in the domains of economic development, technology & innovation and communication & transportation yet show poor performance in ecological protection. Most cities in the middle reach of Yangtze river rank in the middle in the YREB in all the domains, except the provincial capitals. The western region of the YREB gets the lowest score in the coordinated development capability besides the largest cities such as Chongqing, Chengdu, Kunming and Guiyang. The correlation coefficients between ecological protection and other domains are〖JP〗 very low, suggesting that few cities have achieved a win-win situation between environment protection and socio-economic development. We suggest three ways to promote coordinated development in the YREB: establishing multi-level institutional designs; enhancing the innovation in green industries; and strengthening the joint prevention and control of ecological risks.