危险化学品火灾爆炸事故不安全动作分布规律研究

以我国210起典型危险化学品火灾爆炸事故为样本,对造成事故的不安全动作进行归类统计,应用云模型云发生器算法计算大类不安全动作的云模型参数值并绘制隶属云图,得出了危险化学品火灾爆炸事故中不安全动作类型和发出者分布规律及特点。结果表明:造成火源型火灾爆炸事故的违规型不安全动作平均发生次数最多,分布不均匀且不稳定,其中现场工作缺乏指导或监护发生次数最多,发出对象为监理;蓄热型火灾爆炸事故中技术型不安全动作分布表现出较大的随机性,其中物料添加不当和隐患排查不彻底发生次数最多,发出对象分别为基层人员和监理。

On the distributive regularity of reckless acts or behaviors involving hazardous chemicals and fire and explosion causing disasters

The article intends to introduce a cloud model into the quantitative and qualitative analysis of the reckless behaviors or actions based on the 2-4 model in hoping to expound and explain the distributive regularity of such mindless and illegal actions scientifically and logically on the part of the people in charge of the material and social public properties. To achieve the purpose,we have chosen,first of all,210 typical fire and explosion accidents that take place all over the country due to the reckless dealing with the hazardous chemicals. The above-mentioned hazardous chemicals can be taken as negative statistical samples classified in accordance with the statistics. And,such mindless or reckless treatment of hazardous chemicals have been delivered as is regarded as the research targets of 2-4 model at the individual level on the basis of the reckless dangerous behaviors under study here. And,secondly,the cloud vectors which contain information with various sorts of unsafe reckless actions under the category of the reckless dangerous behaviors taken by the poor cloud generators. The statistical results of the cloud vectors tend to show the impact of the great variety of such reckless behaviors on the production and admistrative accidents. And,thirdly,the number of reckless safeless behaviors has been repeatedly aggrevated through the cloud droplet simulation,namely,the forward cloud generator. Therefore,it is easy to find the wide spread of such reckless behaviors in the cloud map so as for such reckless safeless actions to be transformed into qualitative and quantitative abusive customary social phenomena. Therefore,the results of our study reveal that,and even can be said,most of the fire and explosion accidents that took place have been resulted due to the legalless,safeless or reckless behaviors,and,more seriously speaking,due to the negligence of their duties on the part of the officials and even the leading members in charge of control and management of the social properties. It is often the case that most frequently seen illegal reckless behaviors took place due to the negligence of duties on the part of the leading members and the leadership in charge of the supervision and management of the events. Nevertheless,the frequent occurrence of technical safeless actions cannot be said numerous. What has happened most frequently is likely due to the unreasonable installation of the protective devices,whose object should be technical by nature. As for the fire and explosion accidents caused by the thermal storage,the parameters of the cloud model of the technical unsafe actions may rank first. The distribution of such technical reckless actions indicate that,serious randomness,improper material addition and hazards most frequently occur because of not enough thoroughful investigation among the grass-roots staff members and supervisors,respectively. Nevertheless,the cognitive safeless or reckless actions occur just on the contrary,or just to the opposite. The parameters of their cloud model were the least,and its distribution seems to be centralized and can be stabilized.The occurrence of such mindless shift turnover and/or false identification of labels that used to be the most frequent cases,should be blamed to the grass-roots staff members and even managers for their careless inspection and classification.