Scenarios of animal waste production and fertilizer use and associated ammonia emission for the developing countries

Livestock production and the use of synthetic fertilizer are responsible for about half of the global emission of NH₃. Depending on the animal category between 10 and 36% of the N in animal excreta is lost as NH₃. The current annual NH₃ emission in developing countries of 15 million ton N accounts for of the global emission from animal excreta. In addition, 7.2 million tons NH₃N of synthetic N fertilizers are lost as NH₃ in developing countries. This is 80% of the global NH₃ emission from synthetic fertilizer's use. Along with human population increase and economic growth, livestock production in developing countries may even increase by a factor of 3 between now and 2025. The net result of rapid increase of livestock production combined with higher efficiency is an increase in NH₃ emissions of only 60% from 15 to 24 million tons NH₃N between 1990 and 2025 in developing countries. Livestock production is an important consumer of feedstuffs, mainly cereals, thereby inducing additional demand for synthetic fertilizers. Despite the projected major increase of synthetic fertilizer use from 42 to 106 million ton N between 1990 and 2025, the NH₃ loss in developing countries may decrease if a shift towards other fertilizer types, that are less vulnerable to NH₃ volatilization, is realized. According to the scenario, the total emission of NH₃ associated with food production in developing countries will increase from 22 to 30 million ton N yr⁻¹ between 1990 and 2025. Although the NH₃ emission increases more slowly than food production, in particular, animal production may show geographic concentration in certain regions, which may lead to high local emission densities and associated environmental problems.