济南市空气质量数值预报研究

在大规模大气环境参数综合野外测试资料的基础上,为在济南市开展大气污染业务预报新近开发了空气质量数值预报模式系统.该系统由污染源模型(SM)、下垫面参数化模型(XDM)、诊断模式(DM)、中尺度-α气象模式(M-αM)、中尺度-β气象模式(M-βM)、行星边界层(PBL)湍流统计量参数化模式(PBLTM)、干湿沉积模式(DWDM)和高分辨化学模式(HRCM)组成.该系统已成功地应用于济南市空气质量数值预报工作,其预报与实测质量浓度之间有很好的一致性,日平均预报准确率可达80%以上. 

Numerical Forecast on Air Quality in Jinan City

On the basis of large and comprehensive field measuring data for atmospheric environmental parameters,a numerical forecasting model system on air quality was developed recently in order to make business forecast of air pollution in Jinan City.The system consists of pollution source model (SM),parameterization model on underlying source (XDM),meso-α meteorological model (M-αM),meso-β meteorological model (M-βM),parameterization model of turbulent statistics in the planetary boundary layer (PBLTM),dry and wet deposition model (DWDM),and high resolution chemical model(HRCM). The system was used successfully to do business numerical forecast of the air quality in Jinan.There is good agreement between forecasted and measured concentrations,and the average forecasting accuracy for 24 h can exceed 80%.