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| 基于B样条曲线的GM(2,1)动态组合预测模型应用 | |
| 引用本文： | 汪志红,王斌会,刘明.基于B样条曲线的GM(2,1)动态组合预测模型应用[J].中国安全科学学报,2011,21(7). |
| 作者姓名： | 汪志红 王斌会 刘明 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 广东金融学院计算机科学与技术系,广东广州,510521 2. 暨南大学统计学系,广东广州,510632 3. 暨南大学信息技术研究所,广东广州,510632 |
| 基金项目： | 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(21611519); 广东省科技计划项目(粤科社字[2010]164号) |
| 摘 要： | 突发事件具有较强的随机性,且在对某类突发事件的预测研究过程中,往往会出现研究数据样本少或数据缺失的情况。运用工程技术中3次B样条插值和GM(2,1)预测模型对这种情况进行分析、研究,建立基于3次B样条曲线的GM(2,1)动态组合预测模型,在高质量弥补数据缺失的同时,也使预测结果体现局部动态性和全局性的特点。运用该模型对广东省雷电灾害指数进行实证分析,结果显示,预测结果的等级误判率为11%,2010年的灾害指数等级预测区划分布结果与实际情况相吻合。 |
| 关 键 词： | 3次B样条 插值 GM(2 1)模型 预测 灾害指数 |
A Dynamic Combination Forecast Model Based on B-spline Curve and GM (2, 1 ) and Its Application |
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| WANG Zhi-hong,WANG Bin-hui,LIU Ming.A Dynamic Combination Forecast Model Based on B-spline Curve and GM (2, 1 ) and Its Application[J].China Safety Science Journal,2011,21(7). | |
| Authors: | WANG Zhi-hong WANG Bin-hui LIU Ming |
| Institution: | WANG Zhi-hong 1 WANG Bin-hui2 LIU Ming3(1 Computer Science & Technology Department,Guangdong University of Finance,Guangzhou Guangdong 510521,China 2 Statistics Department,Jinan University,Guangzhou Guangdong 510632,China3 Information Tecnology Research Institute,Ji'nan University,China) |
| Abstract: | To deal with the lack or inadequacy of data samples in certain emergency prediction,a dynamic combination forecast model based on cubic B-spline curve and GM(2,1) is built by analysis.This model not only makes up for the lack of data with high quality,but also makes the prediction results reflect the locally dynamic and global characteristics.The application of this model in the empirical analysis of lightning index in Guangdong province shows that the level erroneous recognition of the prediction result is... |
| Keywords: | cubic B-spline curve interpolation GM(2 1) model forecast disaster index |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |