Relating Background NO2 Concentrations in Air to Air Mass History Using Non-Parametric Regression Methods: Application at Two Background Sites in Ireland

The concentration of nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) in background air varies temporally and spatially and is influenced by meteorological and anthropogenic factors. Background concentrations used in local air quality modelling studies have a significant effect on the accuracy of the overall result and when based on short-term monitoring data, variation in concentrations with air mass history is often unaccounted for. The current paper presents a powerful tool for the quantification and separation of local and regional air mass effects on background air quality. The origin of and the regions traversed by an air mass prior to reaching a receptor has been modelled using HYsplit-4. Trajectories (between 12 and 96?h duration) were defined based on the frequency with which they passed into 16 predefined compass quadrants and each represented as a vector. Using this vector as the predictor variable and the background concentration as the response variable, non-parametric regression using a Gaussian kernel function was carried out. A graphical output indicated the trajectory direction of maximum NO₂ concentration, while allowing distinction to be made between spurious and true peaks. In all cases, air mass history was found to have a statistically significant effect on NO₂ concentrations. Incorporating emissions data into the analysis local and regional effects were separated and quantified. It was found that emissions in the UK and Europe have a significant effect on background NO₂ concentrations in Ireland and in some instances supersede domestic emissions. The methods can be used to identify source regions, separate local and regional effects and improve predictions of background concentrations based on limited monitoring data. In particular, the results highlight the importance of considering air mass history when assessing background concentration levels for use in local air quality modelling studies.