德尔斐法在省(区)环境规划战略对策研究中的应用及其结果分析

为科学编制省(区)环境保护整治规划,采用德尔斐法,组织近百名专家和环境管理干部,就甘肃省(和全国)今后五年、十年和三十年间的环境问题、宏观国土环境问题构成因素的相对权重、环保工作的战略重点、环境污染控制途径的可行性和有效性权重、环境规划战略对策和措施的相对重要度、环保投资比例和投资方向等11类问题,进行集合评估和预测,历时一年多,分两轮次,获得基础数据二万多个,经数理统计和计算机辅助判断处理,得到一系列概率分布状态的主要结论,为甘肃省环保规划战略对策的决策过程提供了科学依据。

The Application of Delphi Rule in the Study of Strategic Countermeasures in Provincial and District Environmental Programme and Analysis of Its Outcome

A draft programme for the provincial environmental protection of Gansu was formulated by using the Delphi Rule. Nearly one hundred experts and environment management officials were involved in the programme drafting process in which eleven categories of problems, including environmental problems in the province, the relative weights of the constituting factors of the macroscopic territorial environmental problems, the focal points of environmental protection strategy, the feasibility and weight of effectiveness of environmental protection control approaches, the relatiev importance of strategic counter measures and steps of the environmental programme, and the proportion and direction of investiment in environmental protection etc. in the next 5,10 and 30 years, were integratedly evaluated and predicted. More than 2006 fundamental data were obtained during the process. The data underwent sta-tistical treatment and computer aided anxiliary judgement and a series of principal conclusions concerning the state of probability distribution were thus obtained. This provides the scientific basis for the strategic decision making process of Gansu provincial environmental programme.