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Detecting Extinction Risk from Climate Change by IUCN Red List Criteria |
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| Authors: | DAVID A. KEITH MICHAEL MAHONY HARRY HINES JANE ELITH TRACEY J. REGAN JOHN B. BAUMGARTNER DAVID HUNTER GEOFFREY W. HEARD NICOLA J. MITCHELL KIRSTEN M. PARRIS TRENT PENMAN BEN SCHEELE CHRISTOPHER C. SIMPSON REID TINGLEY CHRISTOPHER R. TRACY MATT WEST H. RESIT AKÇAKAYA |
| Affiliation: | 1. Centre for Ecosystem Sciences, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, , Australia;2. NSW Office of Environment and Heritage, , Australia;3. University of Newcastle, , Australia;4. Queensland Parks and Wildlife Service, , Brisbane Qld 4000, Australia;5. ARC Centre of Excellence for BioSecurity Risk Analysis, School of Botany, University of Melbourne, , Parkville, Victoria 3010, Australia;6. ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, School of Botany, University of Melbourne, , Parkville, Victoria 3010, Australia;7. NSW Office of Environment and Heritage, , Queanbeyan NSW 2620, Australia;8. School of Animal Biology, University of Western Australia, , Crawley, Western Australia 6009, Australia;9. Centre for Environmental Risk Management of Bushfires, School of Biological Sciences, University of Wollongong, , Australia;10. Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University, , Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia;11. Department of Zoology, University of Melbourne, , Parkville, Victoria 3010, Australia;12. Department of Biological Science, California State University Fullerton, , Fullerton, CA 92831, U.S.A.;13. Wildlife Conservation and Science, , Zoos Victoria, Victoria 3052, Australia;14. Department of Ecology and Evolution, Stony Brook University, , Stony Brook, NY 11794, U.S.A. |
| Abstract: | Anthropogenic climate change is a key threat to global biodiversity. To inform strategic actions aimed at conserving biodiversity as climate changes, conservation planners need early warning of the risks faced by different species. The IUCN Red List criteria for threatened species are widely acknowledged as useful risk assessment tools for informing conservation under constraints imposed by limited data. However, doubts have been expressed about the ability of the criteria to detect risks imposed by potentially slow‐acting threats such as climate change, particularly because criteria addressing rates of population decline are assessed over time scales as short as 10 years. We used spatially explicit stochastic population models and dynamic species distribution models projected to future climates to determine how long before extinction a species would become eligible for listing as threatened based on the IUCN Red List criteria. We focused on a short‐lived frog species (Assa darlingtoni) chosen specifically to represent potential weaknesses in the criteria to allow detailed consideration of the analytical issues and to develop an approach for wider application. The criteria were more sensitive to climate change than previously anticipated; lead times between initial listing in a threatened category and predicted extinction varied from 40 to 80 years, depending on data availability. We attributed this sensitivity primarily to the ensemble properties of the criteria that assess contrasting symptoms of extinction risk. Nevertheless, we recommend the robustness of the criteria warrants further investigation across species with contrasting life histories and patterns of decline. The adequacy of these lead times for early warning depends on practicalities of environmental policy and management, bureaucratic or political inertia, and the anticipated species response times to management actions. Detección del Riesgo de Extinción a partir del Cambio Climático por medio del Criterio de la Lista Roja de la UICNKeith et al. |
| Keywords: | amphibian frog population model risk assessment species distribution model threatened species anfibio especies amenazadas estudio de riesgo modelo de distribució n de especies modelo de població n rana |