Assessing the effects of domestic and international energy scenarios and emission reduction strategies on acidification in Finland

An integrated model system was developed and used to assess the effects of alternative energy production scenarios and reduction policies on acidification of lakes and forest soils in Finland. The analysis covered different energy scenarios and resulting emissions of sulfur oxides and nitrogen oxides in Finland, as well as ammonia emissions with various control requirements. In addition, emission reduction scenarios of varied ambition levels in the bordering areas of Finland and in other parts of Europe were included in the analysis. The impacts of the different scenarios were quantified with exceedances of critical loads for acidification and with the total areas where the critical loads are exceeded. The possibilities for reducing the areas with critical load exceedances with national or bilateral measures were investigated. The differences in areas at risk, if depositions from domestic and nearby sources are estimated with a regional model and point-source databases or with a continental scale model and coarser-scale emission data, were analyzed. The reasons for the differences and the implications for national-level assessment are discussed.