长江中游城市群城市化对PM2.5浓度的多尺度驱动机制

探究城市化对PM_2.5浓度的非线性影响及其驱动机制，对城市的大气污染治理具有重要意义.基于2002~2020年长江中游城市群的遥感数据和统计数据，采用空间自相关、系统动态面板回归模型和时空地理加权回归模型等方法，揭示长江中游城市群PM_2.5浓度的时空演变，并探究不同空间尺度下城市化对PM_2.5浓度的驱动机制.结果表明：①2002~2020年长江中游城市群PM_2.5浓度整体呈下降趋势，在空间上大致呈“北高南低”的分布格局.②热点城市有向长江中游城市群西部扩张的趋势，冷点城市空间相关程度有所增强.③PM_2.5浓度与经济城市化、土地城市化和人口城市化之间分别存在“N”型、倒“U”型和“U”型曲线关系.第二产业和能源消耗对PM_2.5浓度变化呈显著促进作用，降水和植被能够有效地削弱PM_2.5污染.④各城市化因子在局部的整体驱动效应均发生了转化，其主要影响区域集中在长江中游城市群的东南、西北和西南等边缘地带城市.结合长江中游城市群的城市发展现状和区域特征，推进产业绿色转型，合理规划城市空间布局和人口分布，增强基础设施建设将有助于实现城市发展和环境保护之间的协调发展.

Multi-scale Driving Mechanism of Urbanization on PM2.5 Concentration in Urban Agglomeration in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River

Exploring the nonlinear effect of urbanization on PM_2.5 concentration and its driving mechanism is crucial for controlling urban air pollution. Based on remote sensing data and statistical data from 2002 to 2020, spatial autocorrelation, systematic dynamic panel regression, and spatio-temporal geographical weighted regression models were used to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution of PM_2.5 concentration in the urban agglomeration of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and explore the driving mechanism of urbanization on PM_2.5 concentration at different spatial scales. The results showed that:① PM_2.5 concentration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River showed an overall decreasing trend from 2002 to 2020, with a spatial distribution pattern of "high in the north and low in the south." ② Hot spot cities expanded towards the western part of the urban agglomeration, whereas cold spot cities showed enhanced spatial correlation. ③ The relationship between PM_2.5 concentration and economic, land, and population urbanization followed N-shaped, U-shaped, and U-shaped curves, respectively. Secondary industry and energy consumption significantly promoted the change in PM_2.5 concentration, and precipitation and vegetation helped mitigate PM_2.5 pollution. ④ The overall driving effects of all urbanization factors in local areas were transformed, and the main areas of influence were concentrated in the southeast, northwest, and southwest of the study area. Considering the current urban development status and regional characteristics of the urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, promoting green industrial transformation, rational planning of urban spatial distribution and population distribution, and enhancing infrastructure construction will facilitate the coordinated development between urbanization and environmental protection.