区域农业循环经济发展评价及其实证研究

运用BPEIR概念模型及特尔菲法选择区域农业循环经济发展评价指标体系,并通过层次分析法,对1985至2003年江苏省农业循环经济发展水平进行综合评价。1985年以来,江苏省农业循环经济发展依次历经缓慢提升、快速发展以及目前的稳定发展阶段,农业循环经济化趋势增强,综合评价指数分布在区间(1,1.5)内;并对2003年影响江苏省农业循环经济发展的障碍因素进行诊断,发现资源减量投入成为主要限制因素。资源减量投入、资源循环利用、经济与社会发展、资源环境安全对江苏省农业循环经济发展的限制作用依次为57%、19%、13%和11%。为提高现阶段江苏省农业循环经济发展水平,提出相关建议,比如减少物质投入,推广适合本区域的生态农业、有机农业生产模式,稳步推进农业产业化与工业化,构建经济激励机制等。

A Positive Study of the Evaluation on the Development of Regional Agricultural Recycling Economy

At present,conventional agriculture is confronted with a series of problems,such as environmental pollution,ecological damage,resources waste,etc.People begin to focus on the development of regional agricultural recycling economy,for improving efficiency in use of resources and economic benefit.The index system for evaluating agricultural recycling economy was finished by BPEIR model and Delphi method.This paper studies the index system for evaluating the development about regional agricultural recycling economy,taking Jiangsu Province as a case. Based on the quantitative analysis by AHP method,it makes a comprehensive evaluation on the development of agricultural recycling economy in Jiangsu Province from 1985 to 2003.The result shows the development process of agricultural recycling economy in Jiangsu can be divided into three phrases.At first stage,the level of agricultural recycling economy improved slowly.Then,it developed quickly.Presently,the development of agricultural recycling economy in Jiangsu Province is in a steady situation. As a whole,the level of agricultural recycling economy in Jiangsu Province goes up continuously. The indexes of evaluation fasten on the section from 1 to 1.5. Secondly, he limiting factors to the development of agricultural recycling economy are disclosed in 2003.The primary obstacle was the reduction of resources input.The proportions of the obstacle to resources input,reduction recycling use of resources,development of economy and society, safety of resources and environment are respectively 579%,13% and ll%.In order to improve the level of agricultural recycling economy of Jiangsu Province,some advices are put forward, such as the reduction of resources input, construction of eco-agriculture and organic agriculture,development of agricultural industrializa-tion.