| 基于马尔可夫模型的降水预测及其利用 |
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| 引用本文： | 崔锦龙,邓姝杰.基于马尔可夫模型的降水预测及其利用[J].资源开发与市场,2008,24(2):115-117. |
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| 作者姓名： | 崔锦龙 邓姝杰 |
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| 作者单位： | 山东师范大学,人口·资源与环境学院,山东,济南,250014 |
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| 摘 要： | 在介绍马尔可夫链的预测方法与模型的基础上,以山东省文登市为例,根据1953—2005年的降水量资料,对年降水量进行了状态分级;应用马尔可夫模型对该地区的降水情况进行了预测和分析,提出了对雨水资源利用的看法。结果表明,该方法客观、准确、可靠、简便,为区域降水的中短期预测提供了新的解决途径。
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| 关 键 词： | 马尔可夫 降水量预测 雨水资源利用 马尔可夫模型 降水预测 雨水资源利用 Utilization Precipitation Prediction Markov 中短期预测 区域 预测方法与模型 结果 分析 情况 地区 应用 状态分级 年降水量 资料 文登市 山东省 |
| 文章编号： | 1005-8141（2008）02-0115-03 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007-12-07 |
| 修稿时间： | 2008-01-17 |
Based on Markov to Prediction of Precipitation and Utilization |
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| CUI Jin-long,DENG Shu-jie.Based on Markov to Prediction of Precipitation and Utilization[J].Resource Development & Market,2008,24(2):115-117. |
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| Authors: | CUI Jin-long DENG Shu-jie |
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| Abstract: | Based on precipitation data 1953-2005 of Wendeng City which was in the Shandong Province, the Markov model was applied to prediction and analysis in this region, and the past 52 years were classified into three classes according to the precipitation data. The authors put forword the opinion of using the rainwater resources. The results indicated that this method was objective, accurate, reliable and handy, it provided new path for prediction of mid - term and short - term region precipitation. |
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| Keywords: | Markov prediction of precipitation utilize rainwater resources |
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