基于压力-状态-响应模型的长株潭城市群生态承载力安全预警研究

在构建城市群生态承载力安全预警评价指标体系基础之上，通过数据的收集，利用灰色加权关联理论，计算了2006~2015年长株潭城市群生态承载力安全指数，并对各年份生态承载力安全警度进行了判定。计算结果显示：从总体来看，2006~2015年长株潭城市群生态承载力安全指数呈现出上升的趋势，安全警度由“高警”下降为“轻警”；从压力、状态、响应3个子系统来看，安全指数同样呈现出上升的趋势，安全警度则由“高警”或“中警”下降为“轻警”。分析表明：近些年长株潭城市群“两型社会”试验区相关资源与环境政策的实施效果是明显的。但我们也发现，试验区统计年份安全指数数值都在 0.700 0 之下，与 “无警”（0.850 0）状态距之甚远，长株潭“两型社会”建设依然任重而道远。

ECOLOGICAL DEFICIT ACCOUNTING AND EVALUATION BASED ON ENERGY-BASED ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT NEW MODEL IN HUNAN PROVINCE

In order to understand the current situation of ecological environment and sustainable development ability of Hunan Province,based on the application of improved traditional ecological footprint model and the statistical data of Hunan Province in 2015,this paper calculates and analyzes the emergy ecological deficit of Hunan Province in 2015.The research result indicates that,in 2015,the emergy ecological capacity is 9.90×108 hm2,The emergy ecological footprint is 1.84× 109 hm2,and the ecological deficit is 8.49× 108 hm2 and the 10,000 yuan GDP's ecological footprint is 6.36 hm2.The analysis result shows that Hunan Province has a large ecological deficit in 2015,and its development is relatively unsustainable,and its dependence on natural resources and energy is relatively high.Among them,arable land and fossil energy land are the greatest contribution factors to the ecological footprint of Hunan Province.Construction land is in the second place.The effects of water area,grassland and woodland are relatively small.The ecological footprint of the 10,000 yuan GDP in Hunan Province in 2015 is continuously decreasing,which demonstrates that the efficiency of Hunan Province's utilization of resources and energy is gradually improving,and the ecological costs of economic development are gradually decreasing.