土地城市化背景下武汉市资源环境承载力仿真研究

运用Vensim软件,通过构建"土地城市化-资源环境承载力"系统动力学模型对不同情景下武汉市资源环境承载力的发展趋势进行仿真,为土地城市化背景下武汉市未来发展方向提供参考。结果显示,协调发展型是最适合武汉市的发展模式,而现状延续型、政绩驱动型和生态环保型情景下武汉市资源环境承载力到2020年均将面临超载压力。武汉市在适当加速推进土地城市化的同时应注重增加耕地面积、加强基础设施建设、降低资源消耗和污染排放,确保资源环境承载系统平稳运行。

SIMULATION STUDY ON RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT CARRYING CAPACITY IN WUHAN CITY UNDER THE BACKGROUND OF LAND URBANIZATION

The purpose of this paper is to simulate the trend of resources and environment carrying capacity in a variety setting of Wuhan city in order to provide reference for the future development under the background of land urbanization.We created the system dynamic model of land urbanization resource environment carrying capacity by using the Vensim software.The results of the study showed that coordinated development is the most suitable type for Wuhan city,and another three types,for example,status quo continuation type,performance driven type and eco-environment type will led to the resource and environment carrying capacity of Wuhan city face overloading in 2020.Therefore,Wuhan should accelerate the land urbanization while increasing the cultivated land area,strengthen the infrastructure construction,reduce the resources depletion and pollution emission,ensure the stable operation of the resources and environment carrying system.