基于胡焕庸线波动的长江经济带水资源环境承载力动态演变特征

基于水资源生态足迹模型,对长江经济带2010—2018年131个地区水资源生态足迹与生态承载力进行研究,并用GIS可视化揭示和探讨长江经济带水资源时空特征。研究发现： （1）胡焕庸线假说在长江经济带区域成立;（2）长江经济带人均水资源生态盈余状况在胡焕庸线以西区域最好,胡焕庸线与胡焕庸亚线之间次之,胡焕庸亚线以东最差;（3）长江经济带胡焕庸线以西区域人均水资源承载力均值、水资源承载力均值在三个区域中最大;（4）长江经济带各地区历年万元GDP生态足迹呈减小趋势,水资源利用率逐年提高;（5）长江经济带历年平均水资源负载指数呈上升趋势,水资源压力逐年上升。研究结果有助于长江经济带水资源综合管理,为水资源的调控及使用提供量化依据。

The dynamic evolution of water resources environmental carrying capacity in the Yangtze River Economic Belt based on the fluctuation of Hu Line

The water resource ecological footprint model was used to study the water resource ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of 131 cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2010 to 2018. The spatial and temporal characteristics of urban water resources in the study area are revealed and discussed by GIS visualization and spatial autocorrelation. The results show that: (1) The Hu Huanyong Line (also known as Heihe-Tengchong Line, or Hu Line) hypothesis is valid in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. (2) The region west of the Hu Line tends to have higher per capita water resource ecological surplus. Per capita water resource ecological surplus of the region between Hu Line and Hu Sub-line is higher than that of the region west of the line. (3) The per capita water resources carrying capacity and the average water resources carrying capacity of the regions west of Hu Line in the study belt are the largest of the three regions. (4) The ecological footprint of ten thousand yuan GDP of each city is decreasing, which means that the utilization rate of water resources is increasing. (5) The average load index of water resources has been increasing year by year. The results are helpful to the integrated management of water resources and provide a quantitative basis for the regulation and use of water resources in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.