中国水生态文明发展水平的空间格局及收敛性

分析水生态文明发展水平的空间关联及其收敛性有助于水生态文明协同建设。从水安全、水生态、水环境、水节约、水监管和水文化6个维度构建评价指标体系,综合采用熵值法综合评价模型、探索性空间数据分析、时空跃迁测度方法和空间面板杜宾模型,对2010—2018年中国水生态文明发展水平的空间格局及收敛性进行了实证研究。研究发现:（1）中国水生态文明发展水平逐年提升,但水生态、水监管和水文化仍是主要短板;地区发展差异显著,从东往西呈“高—低—中”的分布特征。（2）中国水生态文明发展水平呈现显著的正向空间外溢效应和空间格局锁定特征,高高集聚区集中在东部沿海,低低集聚区集中在东北、西北、西南和长江中游地区,后者难以实现向HH型省区的跃迁。（3）全国及东、中、西部地区水生态文明发展水平均存在α收敛、绝对β收敛和条件β收敛;东部绝对β收敛最快,中部条件β收敛最快,西部绝对和条件β收敛均最慢。（4）经济发展水平、人口密度、人力资本和技术进步等对水生态文明发展水平的收敛有显著影响,但存在明显的地区异质性。据此提出具体化的对策建议。

Spatial pattern evolution and convergence of water eco-civilization development index in China

Spatial correlation and convergence of the development level of China's water eco-civilization is vital to its coordinated construction. Constructing an evaluation system of water eco-civilization construction, whose dimensions contain water security, water ecology, water environment, water conservation, water supervision and water culture, this paper adopts entropy methods to measure water eco-civilization development index of China and its 31 provincial-level regions from 2010 to 2018, uses exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) and space-time transition method to examine the spatio-temporal evolution patterns, and builds spatial panel Durbin model to reveal the spatial convergence. The results are obtained as follows. (1) The development index of China's water eco-civilization is increasing year by year, but water ecology, water supervision and water culture are still the main short boards. There are significant regional differences, showing a pattern of "high-low-medium" from east to west. (2) The development index of China's provincial water eco-civilization shows significant positive spatial spillover effect and spatial pattern locking characteristics. The high-high aggregation areas mainly include eastern coastal regions while the low-low ones mainly include northeast, northwest and southwest of China, and middle reaches of the Yangtze River, and the latter is difficult to realize the transition to HH-type provinces. (3) There exists significant α convergence, absolute β and conditional β convergence in China as well as in its eastern, central and western regions from 2010 to 2018, with the fastest in the eastern region referring to absolute β convergence and the fastest in the central region referring to conditional β convergence, while the western region is the slowest in both types of β convergences. (4) Economic development, population density, human capital and technological progress have significant effects on the convergence of China's water eco-civilization development, but there are obvious regional variations. Specific countermeasures and suggestions are put forward accordingly.