水资源与产业结构高级化的适配度时空差异及动态演变

面向“以水定产”的水资源管理新要求,明晰水资源与产业结构高级化的适配情况具有客观需求。针对现有方法在代数式表达和经济学解释上的不足,立足弹性,构建二者的适配度测算指标;并结合Dagum基尼系数和Kernel密度估计,揭示区域及其子地区适配度变化的时空差异特征、贡献率及动态演变规律。以长江经济带为例研究得知：要理性看待产业结构高级化对水资源高效利用的促进作用;经济带阶段性地向适配度更高的方向演变,上中下游地区内及之间适配度的时空差异是经济带时空差异的主要来源,上下游地区内依然存在适配度不均衡问题,据此提出促进水资源高效利用的建议。此外,需结合工业发展阶段,辨别因工业发展相对滞后而引发的“虚强适配”问题。

Spatio-temporal differences and dynamic evolution of the adaptabilities between water resources and advanced industrial structure

The new water resource management policy, such as determining industrial structure by water resources, requires the clarified adaptabilities between water resources and advanced industrial structure for promoting water use efficiencies. To resolve the insufficiency of the existing methods in algebraic expression and economic interpretation, the measurement index of the adaptabilities between water resources and the advanced industrial structure is constructed based on the elasticity. Furthermore, the characteristic, sources and dynamic evolution of the spatio-temporal differences in the study region and its sub-regions are revealed by integrating Dagum's Gini coefficient with Kernel density estimation. Taking the Yangtze River Economic Belt as an example, we can draw the following conclusions. The role of the advanced industrial structure in promoting the efficiencies of water use should be rationally evaluated. The Yangtze River Economic Belt is gradually evolving towards a better degree of adaptation. The spatio-temporal differences of the adaptability in and between the upstream, midstream and downstream regions are major causes for the differences in the economic belt, and the unbalance of the adaptability still exists in the upstream and downstream regions. Finally, we propose some suggestions for promoting water use efficiencies. In addition, it is necessary to identify "false strong adaptation" problems due to the relatively lagging industrial development and low water-demand in some parts of this economic belt, such as Guizhou province.