人类活动对流域生态健康影响风险评估方法研究:以呼伦湖流域为例

随着社会经济的快速发展，我国多数流域受到了不同程度的人类活动影响，并导致了水体污染、生物多样性退化等一系列问题，流域生态系统健康已成为制约我国经济社会可持续发展的突出因素之一.因此，开展人类活动对流域生态健康影响风险评估方法研究具有重要意义，也将对我国未来流域生态环境保护及建设的决策指导起到重要的作用.该研究以旱寒区呼伦湖流域为研究对象，基于人类活动、生态格局、生态功能和生态压力等多个角度，通过构建科学合理的流域人类活动-生态系统评价指标体系，并结合交互风险评估矩阵，开展人类活动对流域生态健康影响风险评估.结果表明:①呼伦湖流域GDP和人口主要分布在海拉尔区和满洲里市周边，其他区域GDP强度和人口强度较低；②呼伦湖流域GDP强度指标有2个子流域分别处于40~60和60~80之间，人口强度指标有1个子流域处于60~80之间，2个子流域处于40~60之间，生态系统指标有8个子流域处于60~80之间，其余子流域均大于80；③呼伦湖流域32个子流域中，有30个子流域处于低风险状态，面积占全区域的98.62%，另有2个子流域处于中等风险状态，面积占全流域的1.38%，研究区域内无高风险子流域.研究显示，该研究提出的评估方法可以有效评估人类活动对流域生态健康影响的风险，有助于明确流域生态健康主要影响因素及系统变化的内在驱动机制，从而为流域尺度生态环境保护及可持续发展提供理论依据与技术支持. 

Risk Analysis of Impact of Human Activities on Ecological Health Based on Watershed Scale: A Case Study of Hulun Lake

With the rapid development of social economy, most of the river basins in China have been affected by human activities, resulting in a series of problems such as water pollution and biodiversity degradation. The ecological health of river basin ecosystem has become one of the prominent factors restricting the sustainable development of China's economy and society. Therefore, it is of great significance to carry out the risk analysis of the impact of human activities on ecological health. It will also play an important role in the decision-making guidance of the future watershed ecological environment protection and construction in China. This study has established an index system including human activities, ecological pattern, ecological function and ecological pressure contents. Combined with interactive risk assessment matrix, the risk of the impact of human activities on ecological health based on watershed scale has been analyzed. The results show that: (1) The GDP and population of the Hulun Lake Basin are mainly distributed around Hailar District and Manzhouli City, while the GDP intensity and population intensity of other regions are relatively low. (2) The GDP intensity index of the Hulun Lake Basin has two sub basins in the medium and high state, respectively; the population intensity index has one sub basin in the high state, two sub basins in the medium state, and the ecological health index has eight sub basins. (3) Among the 32 sub watersheds in the Hulun Lake Basin, 30 sub watersheds are in low-risk state, accounting for 98.62% of the whole region, and the other 2 sub watersheds are in medium risk state, accounting for 1.38% of the whole basin. There is no high-risk sub watershed in the study area. Furthermore, the assessment method proposed in this study can effectively assess the risk of the impact of human activities on the ecological health, so as to provide theoretical basis and technical support for the ecological environment protection and sustainable development of the basin.