对外开放背景下中国粮食安全形势研判与战略选择

中美地缘政治竞争加剧,新冠肺炎疫情、极端天气气候等不确定性事件频发,依托两种资源两个市场的国家粮食安全策略面临新的挑战。结合统计数据与文献观点,分析了新时期中国粮食安全面临的主要问题,研究了农业开放保障粮食安全的主要效用,探索了扩大对外开放背景下我国粮食安全的保障思路。结果表明：（1）中国粮食安全取得了显著成就,但也存在粮食供应的经济与资源环境代价巨大、粮食稳定供应与获取的风险加大等问题,需要在开放条件下创新粮食安全实现路径。（2）农业对外开放可影响粮食供应、获取、利用与稳定性,当前对外开放促进了国家粮食供应,但尚未实现稳定的食物安全、有竞争力的食物安全。农业对外开放仍有广泛的互惠共赢基础,同时也面临更大的不确定性,考验我国粮食领域应对全球化“危”“机”的治理能力。（3）国家粮食安全治理对于保障粮食安全至关重要,建议采取凸显产能的粮食自给战略、全产业链的食物安全战略与高水平的农业对外开放战略,确保粮食安全落实落地。

China's food security situation and strategy under the background of opening-up

Geopolitical competition between China and the United States has been intensifying, and uncertain events such as COVID-19 and extreme weather and climate occur frequently. The national strategy, which relies on two types of resources and two markets to ensure national food security, is facing challenges. Based on statistical data and literature viewpoints, this paper focuses on the main problems facing China's food security in the context of opening-up and how to ensure China's food security. The results show that: (1) China has made remarkable achievements in improving domestic food security, but with huge economic and resource environmental costs of food supply, and the increasing risks of stable food supply and access. The government is exploring practical ways for the achievement of food security in the era of globalization. (2) Agricultural opening-up can affect food supply, access, utilization and stability. The current opening-up has promoted the country's food supply, but it has not yet achieved stable and competitive food security. Agricultural opening-up still has a broad foundation for mutual benefit and win-win effect, while it is also facing greater uncertainty, which tests China's ability to deal with the challenges of globalization in food sector. (3) National food security governance is very important to food security. This paper recommends that we should adopt a self-sufficiency strategy with production capacity highlighted, a food security strategy for the entire industry chain to enrich the content of food, and a higher level of agricultural opening-up strategy, which will help to achieve the goal of national food security.