资源枯竭城市产业结构转型升级水平测度及其影响因素——基于24座地级市的面板数据

产业结构转型升级是资源枯竭城市实现可持续发展的必由之路,产业结构转型升级水平测度及其影响因素研究,则是精准制定产业转型政策的重要依据。基于2008—2017年我国24座资源枯竭地级市的面板数据,从方向、速率及水平三方面测算其产业结构转型升级状况,并运用固定效应模型探究产业结构转型升级的影响因素,结果表明：（1）我国多数资源枯竭城市主要向第三产业转型,少数城市注重培育多产融合的转型模式;（2）我国资源枯竭城市2013—2017年产业结构转型升级速率整体较2008—2012年快,转型升级速率呈加快趋势,但各地区及城市之间存在一定差异性;（3）我国资源枯竭城市产业结构高级化指数总体呈上升态势,产业结构不断优化升级,但整体水平始终低于全国平均水平,并呈东部较高、中西部和东北部较低的空间分异特征;（4）就业总人数、财政支出占GDP比例、社会消费品零售总额、城镇人口比例对资源枯竭城市产业结构转型升级呈正向影响效应,固定资产投资总额呈负向影响效应。

Research on measurement of industrial structural transformation and upgrading level in resource-exhausted cities and its influencing factors:Based on panel data of 24 prefecture-level cities of China

Industrial structural transformation and upgrading is an inevitable path for resource-exhausted cities to realize sustainable development, and researches on measurement of industrial structural transformation and upgrading level in such cities and its influencing factors are important bases of accurate formulation of industrial transformation policies. Based on panel data of 24 resource-exhausted cities in China from 2008 to 2017, conditions of their industrial structural transformations and upgrades are measured from three aspects, namely, direction, velocity and level. In addition, the fixed effect model is adopted to explore influencing factors of industrial structural transformation and upgrading level. The results indicate that: (1) Most of the resource-exhausted cities in China have mainly transformed to the tertiary industry while a small number of cities focus on cultivating the transitional model of multi-industry integration. (2) Compared with the period 2008-2012, the speed of industrial structural transformations and upgrades from 2013 to 2017 was higher, which showed an accelerating trend, but there were differences between regions and cities. (3) Industrial structural transformation and upgrading levels in resource-exhausted cities were on the rise, industrial structures were constantly optimizing and upgrading, and the integral level was lower than the national average level, presenting a spatial pattern of higher in the eastern region, but lower in the central, western and northeastern regions. (4) Total employment, proportion of fiscal expenditures in GDP, total retail sales of consumer goods and proportion of urban population had positive effects on industrial structural transformations and upgrades of resource-exhausted cities, while the total amount of fixed-asset investments had a negative effect on it. The impact of the number of authorized patents is of insignificance.