中国省域私人电动汽车全生命周期碳减排效果评估

私人电动汽车因具有较少碳排放，在替代传统燃油汽车、推动交通领域碳减排方面具有广阔的应用前景.为更准确地衡量私人电动汽车相对于传统燃油汽车的碳减排效果，采用生命周期评价方法构建基于碳减排量和碳减排率的私人电动汽车碳减排核算技术方法，并通过情景分析技术模拟我国不同省份私人电动汽车碳减排潜力及关键影响因素.结果表明:①相对于传统燃油汽车，私人电动汽车在火力发电比例较低的13个省份具有较好的碳减排效果，减排率为34.69%~70.69%；在火力发电比例较高的18个省份减排效果则不太明显，减排率仅为3.20%~31.40%.②在私人电动汽车全生命周期的各阶段中，中低减排省份的燃料周期碳排放量占比最高，为57.33%~80.91%，且随着该省份碳减排效果的改善而不断降低；受制于电池的生产，高减排省份私人电动汽车全生命周期最主要的碳排放阶段为汽车材料周期.③从碳减排影响因素上看，汽车报废里程的增加对私人电动汽车碳减排量具有明显的正影响，但对碳减排率影响不大，碳减排效果较好的省份的碳减排量随报废里程的增加而上升的趋势更明显；百公里电耗的升高和车质量的增加则使碳减排效果下降，在碳减排效果较差的省份百公里电耗水平对碳减排量和碳减排率均有更显著的影响.研究显示，私人电动汽车的推广在我国可以带来一定的碳减排效果，发电能源结构和车质量是影响碳减排效果的2个关键因素，不同省份应因地制宜制定差异化的私人电动汽车推广路径. 

Effects of Private Electric Vehicles on Carbon Emission Reduction in China during Whole Life Cycle

The low carbon emissions of private electric vehicles facilitates their broad application prospects in replacing traditional energy vehicles and in reducing transportation carbon emissions. In order to accurately assess the carbon emissions of private electric vehicles relative to traditional energy vehicles, a life cycle assessment was used to establish a carbon emission accounting method based on the amount and rate of carbon emission reduction. The potential and key factors affecting carbon emission reduction of private electric vehicles in different provinces were simulated using scenario analysis. The results showed that: (1) Compared with traditional energy vehicles, private electric vehicles exhibit a larger extent of carbon emission reduction in 13 provinces, with reduction rates of 34.69%-70.69%, where thermal power generation is less dominant in energy production. In 18 provinces with energy production dominated by thermal power generation, the effect of private electric vehicles on carbon emission reduction is not prominent, and the reduction rates are as low as 3.20%-31.40%. (2) Among the various stages of the full life cycle of private electric vehicles, the fuel cycle carbon emissions in the low and medium emission reduction regions account for the highest proportion of 57.33%-80.91%, and continue to decrease with the improvement of regional carbon emission reduction. Due to the production of batteries, the most important carbon emission phase in the whole life cycle of private electric vehicles in high emission reduction regions is vehicle material cycle. (3) With regard to the factors affecting carbon emission reduction, the increase in mileage of scrapped vehicles has a significantly positive impact on the carbon emission reduction of private electric vehicles, but has little effect on the carbon emission reduction rate, and the increase of carbon emission reduction with increasing mileage of scrapped vehicles is more pronounced in provinces with good carbon emission reduction. Greater electricity consumption and vehicle weight compromise carbon emission reduction, and the electricity consumption shows a larger impact on carbon emission reduction and carbon reduction rate in provinces with poor carbon emission reduction. This research demonstrates that the promotion of private electric vehicles in China has led to carbon emission reduction, and the structure of energy production as well as vehicle weight are two key factors affecting carbon emission reduction. Thus, different provinces and regions should develop different private electric vehicle promotion methods according to local conditions.