中国“三生空间”演变特征、生态环境效应及其影响因素

基于1990年、2000年、2010年和2018年土地利用现状遥感监测数据,利用转移矩阵对中国“生产—生活—生态”结构转型的时空演化特征进行研究,引入生态环境质量指数和土地利用转型的生态贡献率分析中国1990—2018年“三生空间”变化的生态环境效应,利用地理加权回归模型（GWR）对中国生态环境效应的主要影响因素及其作用效应的空间分异进行识别。结果表明:（1）研究期内中国生产、生活空间增加,生态空间减少,总体呈现“入不敷出”的态势。（2）中国1990—2018年生态环境质量的高值区以中国的南部和东北部为主,低值区主要分布在胡焕庸线西北部;其他生态空间和农业生产空间对草地和林地生态空间的挤占是导致研究期内生态环境质量恶化的重要原因。（3）坡度、年平均降水量、土地利用强度、海拔、地形起伏度、人口密度和年平均气温等是中国生态环境质量格局的主要影响因素,且各因素作用效应的空间差异明显。未来中国的政策制定和经济发展应考虑“三生空间”转型的生态环境效应及其主导影响因素,促进“三生空间”用地结构的合理分布,推进中国的生态文明建设。

The evolution of "Production-Living-Ecological" space,eco-environmental effects and its influencing factors in China

Based on the remote sensing monitoring data of land use change/cover in 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2018, using land use transfer matrix, eco-environmental quality index, and ecological contribution ratio of land use transition, this paper analyzes the spatiotemporal features of "Production-Living-Ecological" space structural transformation and eco-environmental effects of land use/cover change in China from 1990 to 2018. On this basis, we identify the main influencing factors of eco-environmental effects and the spatial heterogeneity by using geographically weighted regression model. The results showed that: (1) The production and living space increased, the ecological space decreased, and the overall situation was insufficient from 1990 to 2018 in the whole country. (2) The high-value areas of eco-environmental quality were concentrated to the east of the Hu Huanyong Line during 1990-2018, and mainly in the south and northeast of China. The low-value areas were mainly distributed to the northwest of Hu Huanyong Line. The squeeze of other ecological space and agricultural production space on grassland and woodland ecological space is an important reason for the deterioration of the eco-environment during the study period. (3) Slope, annual precipitation, land use intensity, elevation, topographic relief, population density, and average annual temperature were the main factors influencing eco-environmental quality pattern in China, and the spatial difference of the effect of each factor was obvious. Chinese policies on economic development should take into account the eco-environmental effect of "Production-Living-Ecological" space transformation and influencing factors in the future, and promote the rational distribution of "Production-Living-Ecological" space and the construction of ecological civilization in China.