中国城市旅游发展的时空演化及影响因素——基于动态空间马尔科夫链模型的分析

旅游业已成为中国经济增长的重要驱动力。在静态（空间）马尔科夫链模型的基础上,创新性地引入动态空间马尔科夫链模型,系统地分析中国城市旅游发展的时空格局及影响因素。结果表明：（1）中国城市旅游发展具有持续性的特征,总体上存在“路径依赖”的趋势;同时,旅游发展低水平区向较高/高水平区演变的概率较低,城市旅游发展存在“贫困陷阱”现象。（2）中国城市旅游发展水平的类型演变在地理空间上存在紧密的关联性,即与旅游发展水平越高的城市邻接,其向上级类型区转移的概率也越大;反之与旅游发展水平越低的城市邻接,其向下级类型区转移的概率也越大。（3）中国城市旅游发展受到市场化水平、资源禀赋、对外开放度等方面的综合影响。针对中国城市旅游发展存在过度商业化等问题,提出相应的政策建议。

Spatio-temporal evolution and influencing factors of China's tourism development: Based on the non-static spatial Markov chain model

Tourism industry has become an important driving force of China's economic growth, and its development has unique characteristics and complexity. Based on the analysis of static (spatial) Markov chain model, the non-static spatial Markov chain model is innovatively introduced to study the spatial-temporal pattern and influencing factors of urban tourism development in China. The results show that: (1) The development of urban tourism in China has the characteristics of long-term and sustainability, and there is a trend of 'path dependence' in general. At the same time, the probability that the low level area of tourism development evolves to the high-level area of tourism development is low, and the phenomenon of 'poverty trap' also exists in urban tourism development. (2) There is close spatial correlation in the evolution of urban tourism development, that is to say, the higher the level of tourism development adjacent to a city, the higher the probability of its transfer to the superior type area; conversely, the lower the level of tourism development adjacent to a city, the higher the probability of its transfer to the sub-type area. (3) The urban tourism development in China is influenced by the level of marketization, the density of star hotels, the endowment of tourism resources and other factors. Finally, in view of the over-commercialization and other problems existing in China's tourism development, we put forward some policy suggestions. Building tourism community is an important way to break the 'path dependence' effect of urban tourism development; then the future tourism development needs to restrain the over-commercialization and highlight the tourism characteristics of each city.