面向碳中和的中国低碳国土开发利用

基于IPAT和IBIS模型在预测人为碳排放和陆地生态系统碳汇的基础上,探讨了中国2060年实现碳中和的可行性以及不同土地利用方式承载的碳汇分布。2060年我国人为碳排放预计为0.86 Pg C yr ^-1;IPCC报告中RCP 2.6和RCP 6.0情景的陆地生态系统分别中和33%和38%的人为碳排放。2060年林地、草地、耕地是陆地生态系统碳汇主要贡献者,占93%;与2030年比,在RCP 2.6情景下林地和草地的碳汇贡献分别下降10%和8%,而耕地上升18%;RCP 6.0情景下林地和草地的贡献分别下降7%和2%,而耕地上升4%。但若按2051—2060年间两种情景下的最高年份（2055年）的碳汇计,则分别可以中和65%、82%的人为碳排放。据此,提出为实现2060年碳中和,应以碳承载力为基础,聚焦区域国土空间规划和建设用地开发规模,对土地利用转变进行严格管控,探索制订土地利用碳排放标准。

Land development and utilization for carbon neutralization

This study explores the possibility of carbon neutralization in China before 2060, based on the predicated carbon emissions from human activities and the carbon sinks produced by the territory ecosystem. The results show that the total anthropogenic carbon emissions in China is 0.86 Pg C yr ^-1 in 2060, and the ecosystem would neutralize 33% and 38% of the anthropogenic CO₂ emissions in 2060 under the scenarios of IPCC RCP 2.6 and RCP 6.0. In 2060, woodland, grassland and cultivated land will be the main contributors of carbon sink, accounting for 93% of the total carbon sink. Compared with the year 2030, the contribution of carbon sink from woodland and grassland will decrease by 10% and 8%, respectively under RCP 2.6 scenario, while the contribution from cultivated land will increase by 18%; the contribution of carbon sink from woodland and grassland will decrease by 7% and 2%, respectively under RCP 6.0 scenario, while the contribution from cultivated land will increase by 4%. However, based on the highest carbon sink (2055) during 2051-2060, 65% and 82% of anthropogenic carbon emissions would be neutralized respectively. Therefore, to achieve carbon neutrality in 2060, the varieties of the bearing capacities of carbon budgets from different land use types should be fully considered in the territory planning.