基于比较优势理论的中国区域种养结构时空格局演变分析

研究种植业与养殖业的生产格局及演变趋势是优化种养结构的重要基础,对保障我国粮食安全具有重要意义。基于全国2000年和2017年335个地市的种养业生产数据集,利用比较优势理论分析了我国主要作物和畜产品区域比较优势的时空格局演变。结果显示:（1）近 17年,种植业和养殖业生产的区域比较优势空间格局上均无显著变化,肉类产出的优势区域呈扩散趋势;（2）饲料粮（玉米和大豆）生产的优势区域与精饲料消耗为主的牲畜（猪、禽类）优势区域并不匹配。为提升我国农业生产的种养结合水平,提出以下建议:区域种植业和养殖业的结构需进行合理化调整;根据区域种植业规模来确定养殖业规模;在区域尺度上合理布局有机肥加工厂;加强有机肥施用技术的研发;加大对养殖企业粪污处理方面的监管力度。

Spatio-temporal evolution of regional structure about crops and livestock in China based on the theory of comparative advantage

Studying the production pattern and evolution trend of crop and livestock is an important basis for optimizing crop-livestock structure to realize food security. Based on the production data sets of 335 cities in 2000 and 2017, this paper used the theory of comparative advantage to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution of the regional comparative advantages of major crops and livestock products in China. The results showed that: (1) In the past 17 years, there was no significant change in the spatial pattern of regional comparative advantages about crops and livestock products. The regions, which had the comparative advantage of meat, had been spreading. (2) The comparative advantage regions for the feed production (corn and soybeans) did not match the comparative advantage regions for livestock (pigs and poultry), where concentrated feed was mainly consumed. To improve the level of integrated crop-livestock in China, the following suggestions are put forward: rationally adjusting the regional crop-livestock structure; controling the scale of the livestock according to the scale of the regional crops; rationally allocating the distribution of manure fertilizer factories in the spatial pattern; advancing the progress of the technology so as to apply more manure fertilizer and less chemical fertilizer to crops; and strengthening the supervision of manure treatment of livestock factories.