基于生态足迹时间序列的四川省可持续发展研究

为了定量评价四川省可持续发展程度的动态变化及其影响因素,计算了1990-2002年四川省生态足迹时间序列,着重分析了该省生态足迹、生态盈亏和生态效益的动态变化及其驱动机制.结果显示:四川省十二年间人均生态足迹由1990年的1.1421hm2/人增大到2002年的1.2795hm2/人,人均生态承载力由0.5639hm2/人减小到0.3327hm2/人,生态赤字逐年增大;人均生态效益逐年增加.结果表明:目前四川省的发展模式是不可持续的;自然资源利用效益不断提高,环境污染有所缓减.最后,根据生态盈亏的影响因素提出了降低和消除生态赤字的措施.

Study of Regional Sustainable Development Based on Ecological Footprint Time Series Analysis in Sichuan Province

To quantitatively evaluate dynamic variation of the sustainable development degree of Sichuan province and its affecting factors,time sequence of ecological footprint(EF)of the province from 1990 to 2002 was calculated with focus on analyzing dynamic variations of the EF,ecological budget and ecological benefit of the province and their driving mechanisms.Results show that from 1990 to 2002,the EF(per capita)enhance from 1.1421 to 1.2795 and ecological capacity(per capita) reduce from 0.5639 to 0.3327,and show that ecological deficit and the ecological benefit(per capita) increases year by year.The results show that the existence of ecological deficit reflects unsustainability of the development model of Sichuan province,the enhancement of the benefit of natural resource and the reduction of environmental pollution.Finally,based on analysis of the causes of the ecological deficit,measures are advanced to reduce and eliminate the ecological deficit in Sichuan province.