原油储罐火灾扬沸形成时间预测模型研究

扬沸火灾是一种突变性火害现象，其发生能导致巨大的人员伤亡和财产损失，其形成时间预测问题一直备受关注。根据能量守恒定律，把原油层内的热量传递看作无内热源、常物性的非稳态传热问题，建晓热量传递模型，通过预测油层内的温度分布，结合小尺度油罐扬沸火灾实验结果，推导出扬沸形成时间预测模型。并对其可靠性进行了案例验证，结果表明模型准确，误筹较小。实验发现随着罐径的增大，水层厚度对扬沸形成时间的影响逐渐减小。通过预测模型计算得到：扬沸形成时间与初始油层厚度和罐径的比值存在正比例关系。

Study of time predicting model for boilover formation in crude oil tank fire

Boilover is a kind of mutational phenomenon, which can cause great casualties and property losses. The time prediction method of boilover formation was particularly concerned. According to the law of conservation of energy, the formation of heat transfer within oil layer was regarded as the unsteady heat transfer problem without heat resource, and a heat transfer model was established. The temperature distribution was predicted, Combining the experimental results of small scale oil tank fire test were combined, the prediction model of boilover formation was derived. The reliability of prediction model was tested. The results indicated that the model is right. Experiments resuits indicate that the influence of water layer thickness on the time of boilover formation decrease gradually with increase of oil tank diameter. The time of boilover formation directly related with the ratio of initial oil layer thickness and tank diameter through the prediction model calculation.