模糊事故树在分析氯乙烯单体槽爆炸风险中的应用

在对氯乙烯单体槽爆炸事故构建事故树的基础上,根据现场设备实际运行状况的统计及依据专家经验所提供的模糊信息,运用模糊事故树理论,引入L-R型模糊数,应用其尖态型隶属函数,对氯乙烯单体槽进行了模糊可靠性分析,求出了氯乙烯单体槽爆炸事故的模糊概率可能性分布;并利用结构重要度系数近似值法对其进行结构重要度分析,运用对事故树底部事件进行排序分级的加权结构重要度分析法,确立了影响系统的最主要因素,为系统安全分析提供了新的方法和途径。

Application of Fuzzy Fault Tree Method in Risk Analysis of Vinyl Chloride Monomer Tank Explosion

On the basis of the construction of the fault tree of vinyl chloride monomer tank explosion,and according to the statistics of running condition of field equipment and the fuzzy information provided by expert experience,a reliability analysis on vinyl chloride monomer tank was firstly made by using fuzzy fault tree theory,introducing L-R fuzzy number and applying a sharp-state-typed membership function.Then the fuzzy probability distribution of the explosion was gained,and the structural analysis of importance wag conducted by using structural important coefficient approximation method.Finally,the major factors affecting vinyl chloride monomer tank explosion were decided by rating the bottom events of the fault tree with the importance-weighted structural analysis.