1470～1949年贵州地区干湿序列的重建及其影响分析

贵州地区在小冰期的气候环境状况及其对人类活动的影响研究缺乏，综合历史文献资料分析与地质记录的研究仍有待加强。基于1470~1949年贵州地区旱涝历史文献资料重建该区干湿变化序列，然后运用互信息的相关分析方法对此序列进行检验，再通过小波分析探究其干湿变化过程与周期。同时，结合高分辨率石笋δ18O序列、海洋热状况和国家与地方政权的动荡情况，讨论其控制因子及其对人类活动的影响。研究表明：（1）贵州地区15世纪末期气候偏干，16世纪整体较湿润，在经历了17世纪前期的干旱期后，从17世纪中期至20世纪前期为一个长期较稳定的湿润期，与众多古环境研究记录较为吻合；（2）小波分析表明干湿变化具有128~155年、32~55年、11~20年的周期，反映其干湿变化主要受太阳活动控制；（3）贵州地区湿润程度受南亚夏季风强度、ENSO、AMO等因素影响，且对当地政治活动和地表生态环境产生了重要影响。

Reconstruction and Analysis of Dry/ Wet Series in Guizhou Area in 1470-1949

The historical data of drought and flood contain comprehensive and reliable environmental information, which records the frequent occurrence of natural disasters in China during the Little Ice Age. However, researches on the climatic and environmental conditions and their impacts on human activities in Guizhou region which use these data are few reported. This paper collated and analyzed the historical data of drought and flood in the area of Guizhou from 1470 to 1949, verifying by correlation analysis based on mutual information, exploring the humidity variation processes and cycles by sliding average method and wavelet analysis, , discussing its controlled mechanism and the influence on human activities compared with the high-resolution stalagmite δ18O sequence, ocean thermal condition and the relationship between central and local governments. Results showed that（1) the climatic condition in Guizhou was dry in the late 15th century, while in the 16th century it was wet. After the dry period in the early 17th century, Guizhou experienced a long and stable wet period which was from the mid-17th century to the early 20th century. These results correspond well with copious records.（2) The humidity variation had periods of about 128~155 years, 32~55 years and 11~20 years, reflecting that they are primarily controlled by solar radiation intensity and solar activity.（3)The humidity variation was affected by the intensity of the South Asian summer monsoon, ENSO and AMO as well as solar radiation, which also had profound impacts on political activities and other human activities during Ming and Qing Dynasty.