长江中下游地区畜禽承载力评估与预警分析

为评估长江中下游地区畜禽养殖的环境风险和承载潜力，以《畜禽养殖业产污系数与排污系数手册》和《畜禽粪污土地承载力测算技术指南》中的相关参数为基础，采用2016年的统计数据，测算了长江中下游地区的畜禽粪便总量、耕地畜禽粪污氮磷负荷和耕地畜禽养殖环境容量。结果表明：（1）2015年长江中下游地区畜禽粪便总量为44 784.09万t，单位耕地畜禽粪污氮、磷负荷分别为71.18、12.71 kg/hm2，畜禽养殖环境容量76 561.60万头猪当量（N）、106 208.50万头猪当量（P），环境风险指数为0.68（N）、0.84（P），养殖风险中等，具有一定发展潜力，增量规模分别为实际养殖总量的47%（N）、19%（P）；（2）分省域来看，畜禽粪便资源丰富程度由高到低依次为湖南、湖北、安徽、江西、江苏、浙江和上海；耕地氮负荷由大到小依次为湖南、湖北、江西、安徽、江苏、上海和浙江；耕地磷负荷由大到小依次为湖南、湖北、江西、江苏、安徽、上海和浙江；上海、江苏、浙江、安徽、湖北和湖南畜禽养殖环境风险中等，具有发展潜力，可适当增加养殖数量；江西畜禽养殖环境风险较严重，不具有发展潜力，需要进行总量控制；（3）分市域来看，约59%的市畜禽养殖环境风险中等，约28%的市畜禽养殖环境风险较严重，约10%的市畜禽养殖环境风险较小，仅3%的市畜禽养殖环境风险严重。需按照重点调控区、约束发展区、适度发展区、潜力增长区和重点发展区进行优化，并根据区域种植业结构进行动态调整。

Bearing Capacity Assessment and Forewarning Analysis of Livestock and Poultry Breeding in the Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River

In order to evaluate the environmental risk and bearing potential of livestock and poultry breeding in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River, the total amount of livestock and poultry manure, livestock manure nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) load on farmland as well as environmental capacity of livestock and poultry breeding in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River were carefully calculated using the statistical data of 2016. The handbooks of “Pollutant generation coefficient and discharge coefficient in livestock and poultry breeding industry” and “Technical guide for the measurement of soil bearing capacity of livestock and poultry manure” provided the references during the calculation. The results showed: （1) the total amount of livestock and poultry manure in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River was 447.84 million tons; livestock manure N and P load on farmland were 71.18 kg/hm2 and 12.71 kg/hm2, respectively; the environmental capacity of livestock and poultry breeding was 765.62 million (N) and 1 062.09 million (P), and the environmental risk index was 0.68 (N) and 0.84 (P). The environmental risk level of livestock and poultry breeding was medium, which indicated there was certain development potential with the incremental scale of 47% (N) and 19% (P) in this area. （2) In terms of the provincial differences, the abundance of livestock and poultry manure followed the order of Hunan > Hubei > Anhui > Jiangxi > Jiangsu > Zhejiang > Shanghai, the nitrogen load of cultivated land had the order of Hunan > Hubei > Jiangxi > Anhui > Jiangsu > Zhejiang > Shanghai, and the order of livestock manure P load on farmland was Hunan > Hubei > Jiangxi > Jiangsu > Anhui > Zhejiang > Shanghai. The environmental risk level of livestock and poultry breeding in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, Hubei and Hunan was medium, thus, these provinces had the potential to expand livestock and poultry breeding. In contrast, the environmental risk level of livestock and poultry breeding in Jiangxi was a bit serious, the implement of mass based controls might be needed. (3) In terms of the city differences, almost 59% of the total cities’ livestock and poultry farming environmental risk level was medium, about 28% was a little serious and 3% was serious, while about 10% was less. Thus, it was necessary to optimize the distribution of livestock and poultry breeding based on key control areas, restrained development areas, moderate development areas, potential growth areas and key development areas, and dynamic adjustment according to the regional planting industry structure in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River was proposed.