近30年江苏省建设用地扩张的时空特征、模式与驱动因素研究

采用Landsat TM/ETM遥感解译数据，综合运用定性与定量方法，分析江苏省1985～2015年建设用地扩张的时空演变特征、类型与模式，通过多元回归和地理探测器方法探索江苏省和各地级市建设用地扩张的时空驱动因子及驱动机制。结果表明：(1）江苏省建设用地扩张幅度空间上呈现苏南>苏中>苏北的特征，建设用地扩张速率时间上呈现先上升后下降的趋势，2005～2010年是快速扩张期。（2)江苏省建设用地扩张呈空间自相关和明显的集聚分布。扩张密度分布呈现以江苏沿江地区为高值中心，沿海及苏北地区为低值连片区的空间分异现象。高-高值区主要分布在城市中心区。（3)江苏省已形成沿长江的城市发展轴带和空间集约的都市连绵区，呈现外延型的空间扩张模式。江苏省建设用地扩张的协调性和稳定性，均出现苏南>苏北的地理空间格局，可分为 4种类型：协调稳定型、不协调稳定型、协调波动型、不协调波动型。(4）建设用地扩张主导时间驱动因子是产业结构转型、人口增长、居民生活水平提高和投资增长，第二、三产业比重是扩张的核心时间驱动因素，工业化是驱动建设用地扩张的重要动力。GDP和人口密度是建设用地扩张的主导空间驱动因子。

Spatial-Temporal Characteristics and Driving Factors of Urban Construction Land in Jiangsu Province in the Last 30 Years

Based on qualitative and quantitative analysis, this paper focused on the time taken for expansion and the spatial evolution characteristics of construction land in Jiangsu Province from 1985 to 2015. By referring to the nearest neighbor index and spatial correlation method, the expansion direction and type of urban construction land were delimited, as were the spatial agglomeration characteristics. This paper diagnosed the dominant driving factors of urban construction land and analyzed the dominant driving factors in depth using multivariate linear regression and geographical detector. The major results were: first, the Jiangsu Province construction land extension showed Sunan > Suzhong > Subei. The period from 2000 to 2010 was the fastest for development of construction land. Second, self-correlation showed that the expansion of construction land in Jiangsu Province had an obvious agglomeration distribution pattern. Jiangsu Province had formed an urban sprawl distribution pattern along the Yangtze River, and it also exhibited urban agglomeration. The coordination and stability of the expansion of construction land in Jiangsu Province all showed that the geographical spatial pattern of Sunan was greater than Subei. The main time driving factors for the expansion of construction land were the industrial structure, population growth and the living standard of residents. The proportion of second and third industry is the core time driving factor of the expansion. GDP and population density were the leading spatial driving factors for the expansion of urban construction land in Jiangsu Province.