湖北省关键生态系统服务供需状况的时空变化研究

生态系统服务是改善自然生态和维持土地可持续利用的关键。该文基于生态系统服务的供需视角，从时空两个维度量化了城市化过程中生态系统服务的赤字和盈余，据此提出土地优化利用建议。以湖北省为例，选取水源涵养、PM10去除、固碳和休闲娱乐4种生态系统服务，评估了2010~2015年湖北省生态系统服务供需的盈缺情况及演变过程，并测算其平衡阈值。结果表明：（1）除了水源涵养服务供给充足外，PM10去除、固碳和休闲娱乐服务均处于赤字状态；（2）水源涵养服务的供需趋向平衡，而PM10去除、固碳和休闲娱乐服务的供需差异逐步扩大；（3）各类生态系统服务的供需空间异质性较大；（4）生态系统服务供需达到平衡所要求的绿地比阈值普遍上升，建设用地比阈值普遍下降。上述研究对生态系统服务供需的直观量化，为优化土地管理提供了科学依据；建议湖北省应重点关注城市化过程中PM10去除和碳排放控制的问题，适度增加城市绿地，合理控制建设用地扩张。

Spatial temporal Variations in the Supply demand Balance of Key Ecosystem Services in Hubei Province

Ecosystem services are a fundamental concept in natural environment management and sustainable land use. Most previous studies focus on assessments of ecosystem services, while less research quantified the supply and demand of ecosystem services, as well as the balance. This paper quantified the deficit and surplus of ecosystem services in a context of rapid urbanization, and put forward suggestions for sustainable land development path. Hubei province was used as a case study, four ecosystem services, including water conservation, PM10 removal, carbon sequestration and recreation were selected to evaluate the surplus and deficit of ecosystem services in Hubei province from 2010 to 2015, and the equilibrium threshold (i.e., supply demand balance) was calculated. The results showed that: (1) all focal ecosystem services were in deficit expect water conservation; (2) the equilibrium of water conservation services was relatively stable through time, while larger deficits were produced for other services; (3) the supply demand of ecosystem services presented evident spatial heterogeneity; and (4) the green space ratio threshold required by the balance increased, while the construction land threshold ratio decreased. This study provided a scientific support for sustainable land management by quantifying the supply and demand of ecosystem services. We suggest that Hubei government should put more efforts on the removal of PM10 and carbon emission control during urbanization, increase urban green space and control the expansion of construction land.