农业节水和南水北调对华北平原可持续水管理的影响

针对华北平原可持续水管理中存在的问题，采用MIKE SHE模型和SD模型耦合的方式，设定现状保持、农业节水和南水北调等3种情景，模拟2014~2028年农业节水和南水北调对华北平原可持续水管理的影响。结果表明：（1）农业节水的实施对华北平原可持续水管理有一定影响，模拟期末的缺水指数下降15.8%，非充分灌溉和减少灌溉量分别使得地下水储量恢复约0.06和0.12 m；（2）南水北调显著降低缺水指数（下降50.7%），地下水水位和含水层储量出现较大的恢复（含水层储量恢复1.12 m）；（3）华北平原短期内无法解决缺水问题，但通过多种途径结合，倡导节约用水，提高用水效率，引入区域外的水，可以有效地缓解华北平原的缺水问题，保证水资源的可持续利用和发展。

Effects of Agricultural Water Conservation and South-to-North Water Diversion on Sustainable Water Management in North China Plain

In view of the existing problems in the sustainable water management of the North China Plain (NCP), the MIKE SHE model and SD model were adopted to set three scenarios, including business as usual, agricultural water conservation (AWC) and south-to-north water diversion project (SNWDP), to simulate the impact of AWC and SNWDP on the sustainable water management of the NCP from 2014 to 2028. The results show that :(1) the implementation of agricultural water conservation has a certain impact on the sustainable water management in the NCP. At the end of the simulation period, the water shortage index decreased by 15.8%, and the insufficient irrigation and irrigation reduction made the groundwater aquifer storage recover by 0.06 m and 0.12 m respectively; (2) SNWDP can significantly reduce water shortage index (decreasing by 50.7%) and the recovery of groundwater levels and aquifer storage appear larger (aquifer storage recovery of 1.12 m); (3) the NCP is unable to solve the problem of water shortage in the short term, but through a variety of ways, such as advocating water conservation, increasing water use efficiency and transferring water from outside area, can effectively alleviate the water shortage of the NCP and ensure the sustainable utilization and development of water resources.