Modeling thermoelectric power generation in view of climate change |
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Authors: | Hannah Förster Johan Lilliestam |
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Institution: | (1) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg A31, 14473 Potsdam, Germany |
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Abstract: | In this study we investigate how thermal power plants with once-through cooling could be affected by future climate change
impacts on river water temperatures and stream flow. We introduce a model of a steam turbine power plant with once-through
cooling at a river site and simulate how its production could be constrained in scenarios ranging from a one degree to a five
degree increase of river temperature and a 10–50% decrease of stream flow. We apply the model to simulate a large nuclear
power plant in Central Europe. We calculate annual average load reductions, which can be up to 11.8%, assuming unchanged stream
flow, which leads to average annual income losses of up to 80 million €. Considering simultaneous changes in stream flow will
exacerbate the problem and may increase average annual costs to 111 million € in a worst-case scenario. The model demonstrates
that power generation could be severely constrained by typical climate impacts, such as increasing river temperatures and
decreasing stream flow. |
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