三峡库区生态经济区用地结构演变及驱动机制——以梁平县为例

根据1999～2007年土地利用统计、社会经济资料，借助信息熵原理及马尔科夫转移矩阵模型对梁平县土地利用结构动态演变进行了实例分析。结果表明，梁平县土地利用结构信息熵H经历了3个阶段：1999～2002年持续上升阶段、2002～2003年急速回落阶段及 2003～2007年波动阶段，土地利用结构无序程度发展态势不明显，均衡度变化与信息熵相似。用地类型主要由耕地转向林地、交通用地、居民点及工矿用地。定性分析了影响该县用地结构动态演变的政治经济政策，并利用主成分分析法对经济社会主要驱动因子进行了分析与探讨，得出影响该县用地结构动态演变的主要驱动力为：政治经济政策、经济发展。最后依据分析结果对梁平县未来发展做出定位：特色农业县--重点发展农林产品加工及文化生态旅游。

STUDY ON EVOLUTION AND DRIVING MECHANISM OF LAND USE STRUCTURE OF ECOLOGICAL ECONOMIC ONE IN THE THREE GORGES RESERVOIR AREA——A CASE STUDY OF LIANGPING COUNTY

According to the land-use statistics and the socio-economic data from 1999 to 2007,the dynamic evolution of Liangping County's land-use structure was exemplified based on the information entropy principle and Markov transfer matrix model.The results show that the information entropy H of Liangping County's land-use structure has gone through three stages,that is,1999～2002 continual rising stage and 2002～2003 sharply decreasing stage and 2003～2007 fluctuating stage.Meanwhile,the disorderly development tendency of the land-use structure is not obvious;the change in the degree of balance and dominance is similar to information entropy.The types of land have been mainly transferred from cultivated land to woodland,land for traffic,land for residential settlements and industry mining.The political and economic policies,which have an effect on the evolution of land-use structure in Liangping County,have been analyzed qualitatively.The main driving factor to economic society has been discussed by means of the principal component analytical method.Through the above analysis,it would be concluded that the main driving forces affecting the dynamic evolution of the county's land-use structure are political and economic policies and economic development.Finally,a future development orientation for Liangping County has been made,referring to the analytical results,that is,distinctive agricultural county,focusing on the development of agriculture and forestry products processing as well as cultural eco-tourism.