基于复杂系统建模的水管理政策研究进展

基于Agent的建模方法（ABSS）通过自下而上的方式，考察系统中主体的不同状态和行为特征、主体与环境的作用、主体之间的作用，来表征系统的宏观特征，是进行复杂社会环境系统分析和政策研究的重要手段，在水资源、水环境管理系统中得到了有效的应用。本文在大量文献调研的基础上，讨论了ABSS建模方法的基本原理、主要特征、系统构成、分类方法和开发工具等特征，总结了其供水系统发展、水资源分配和流域水资源管理、农业土地和水资源利用、居民用水行为、农业污染控制及人类活动的水环境影响等方面的应用，分析了其在研究内容、研究方法、研究结果等方面的发展趋势，讨论了利用该方法研究我国水资源管理和水污染控制政策的必要性和重要性。

AGENT- BASED SOCIAL SIMULATION FOR POLICY RESEARCH IN WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT AND WATER POLLUTION CONTROL

From bottom-up, Agent-based social simulation has been proved to be an important technique in studying various complex adaptive systems, especially socio-economic and water systems. This paper explores the general principles, charactersistics, system components, major classifications, and development tools of ABSS. The current applications of ABSS in water supply system development, water resources allocation and watershed management, agricultural land use and water resources management, residential water demand behaviors response to water policy change, agricultural water pollution control and activities are examined, giving emphasis on the policy aspects. Several future perspectives of methodology issues, main focus in water related field of ABSS are presented. It points out the necessity and importance for China's water resources management and water pollution control simulations and policy analysis.