Dynamic analysis of the virtual ecological footprint for sustainable development of the Boao special planning area

The concept of the virtual ecological footprint (VEF) was proposed to overcome the drawbacks of existing ecological footprint (EF) calculations, and was applied to the dynamic prediction of development in the Boao special planning area. The restriction of ecological carrying capacity to the EF was quantified using the ecological carrying capacity occupation index, k, and this restriction was designed in the system dynamics model of EF. The modeling results revealed that the planning area presented 0.44 global ha ecological surplus per capita in 2004. However, a remarkable ecological deficit was predicted to occur after planning is implemented. According to the prediction, ecological deficit per capita would be 0.49 and 2.36 ha in 2010 and 2020, respectively. Strategies for regional sustainable development were proposed according to the results. To reduce adverse effects, measures related to EF and VEF, including population control, optimization of consumption pattern and land use, and ecological compensation, were proposed for the sustainable development of a planning area.