武汉市“三废”排放的库兹涅茨特征及原因探析

通过分析武汉市1985-2001年近16年的“三废”排放量变化情况，发现武汉市“三废”的排放总量在波动中呈现上升趋势，但各类排放的时间规律相差明显。建立模型，将其人均GDP与“三废”排放的标准化值进行拟合，其计算结果显示：武汉市“三废”排放与人均GDP之间存在比较明显的三次曲线特征，在1985-1994年曲线呈持续下降趋势，而1995-2001年曲线初步显现出标准的环境库兹涅茨曲线。理论计算表明：武汉市“三废”排放的环境库兹涅茨曲线的转折点为人均GDP为12338．46元左右。通过环境经济学分析发现武汉市的经济发展、产业结构变动、能源结构变动和环境政策等4项因素是武汉市出现非标准环境库兹涅茨曲线的主要原因。

Exploring on Environmental Kuznets Characteristics of Wastewater,Waste Gas and Solid Wastes and Their Causes in Wuhan City

Through analyzing the variation of waste water,waste gas and solid wastes,the paper finds that the total quantity is waveringly ascending,but the discharges of the three kinds of wastes are different from the viewpoint of time.By Building the model,the paper has simulted the function between the standard value of annual per capita and the total value of "three wastes".The results show that the curve conforms to the three time function, and the curve descnds from 1985 to 1994,but the curve preliminary showed the Environmental Kuznets characteristics from 1995 to 2001.The simulated calculation illustrates that the turning point of this Environmental Kuznets Curve would be over 12338.46 yuan.Using the theory of Environmental Economics,the author finds the economic development,changing of industry structure,changing of energy resource structure and environmental policies are the main factors that lead to the Environmental Kuznets Curve in Wuhan city.