柴达木盆地水资源决策支持系统的设计与开发研究

柴达木盆地水资源规划管理决策属典型的半结构化、多层次、多决策者和多目标的决策问题，为此设计开发了柴达木盆地水资源决策支持系统。文章系统地介绍了柴达木盆地水资源决策支持系统结构框架、设计原则、开发思路、决策模式和基本功能。系统由数据库、模型库及其管理系统三部分组成，模型库包括人口动态模型、宏观经挤模型、水资源模拟模型、绿洲生态需水模型和水资源多目标优化分析模型等5个基本模型。在求解水资源多目标优化分析模型时，使用了逐步法(STEM)，把多目标化为单目标进行求解，决策者在迭代权衡过程中输入经验与偏好信息来获取满意的决策信息。

Development of decision-support system for water resources planning and management in the Qaidam Basin,Qinghai,China

The Qaidam Basin,which is situated in Northwest China,is a closed arid inland basin with plentiful of natural resources.Water resources play a key role both in local economic development and eco environmental protection.The decision makers must determine what water resources development policies should be pursued when large scale development is launched.A decision support system was designed to address water resources planning and management.The system consists of three components:database,model base and graphical user interface.The model base integrates models of population,macroeconomics,water resources system,ecology and multi objective programming,thereby permitting interactive evaluation of different future scenarios through graphical user interface.The models are coupled by means of data transfers via the database and allow the consequences of water resources development policies on society,economics and environment to be estimated in terms of food production,gross domestic production(GDP)and waste water discharge.The database,besides transferr ing data for model operation,provides background information,such as river system,transportation system,arable land distribution and other spatial information etc.in forms of maps or/and tables.Simulation and modeling results show that the system can successfully assist government officials in determining water resources development policies for the basin.