Uranium resource appraisal: Past trends and outlook for adequacy of supply

As uranium has practically no other industrial uses besides electricity generation, demand is determined by the requirements and stockpiling policies of electric utilities. The uranium market has experienced strong fluctuations and is currently affected by the reductions in nuclear forecasts resulting from the slowdown in electricity demand. Analysing supply/demand indicators proves, however, that in retrospect the development has been relatively smooth and it appears that oversupply is more a consequence of overly optimistic short-term expectations. In the future, especially in the long term, nuclear power policies continue to be concerned with striking a proper balance between increasing production capability and development of new reactor technologies which would be less dependent on the availability of uranium. A bounding scenario approach is applied in this article to the assessment of adequacy of supply under varying assumptions on the total installed nuclear capacity, available resource base and attainable production capability.