云南安宁工业区工业经济-水资源-水污染系统仿真模型及策略分析

水资源短缺和水污染是安宁工业区经济发展的重要限制因素。本文将该工业区分解为3个子区,应用系统动态学方法,建立多区相关的工业经济-水资源-水污染系统仿真模型,分别对各子区1985至2000年的工业产值、工业用水差距和水质进行多方案预测。在子区域综合的基础上,结合多级决策树法,筛选出安宁工业区协调工业经济、水资源和水质之间关系的最佳方案。

THE SIMULATION MODEL OF THE SYSTEM OF INDUSTRY ECONOMY-WATER RESOURCES-WATER POLLUTION AND ITS STRATEGY ANALYSIS IN THE ANNING INDUSTRIAL REGION, YUNNAN

Water resources shortage and water pollution are the major limiting factors to the economic development of the Anning industrial region. This paper divides the industrial region into 3 sub-regions and establishes a multi-regional interrelated system dynamic model of the system of industry economy-water resources-water pollution in the Anning industrial region. The industrial output value, industrial water supply gap and water pollutant concentration of the 3 sub-regions are predicted for the period 1985 to 2000 with the model. On the basis of the integration of the 3 sub-regions, the optimum scheme for coordinating the industry economy, water resources and water pollution is sifted out by using the multihierarchical decision-making tree method.