考虑多主体心理效应的应急资源调度超网络模型

为探究不同人员主体心理效应对应急资源调度过程的影响,运用超网络工具,定量描述差异化应急主体协调运作下不同属性应急网络的相互作用;同时,针对实际调度过程中出现的供需矛盾,引入行为科学理论,量化表示决策者后悔和灾民失望心理,并将其融入到应急资源优化调度问题中;建立以调度时间、应急成本、救援效应为目标函数的应急资源调度超网络模型,将模型转化为变分不等式等价形式,应用修正投影算法对模型进行求解。结果表明:该模型可有效解决多人员主体心理作用下的应急资源协调调度问题;应急主体关联度、灾害风险度、决策者后悔心理和后悔规避行为以及灾民失望心理和失望规避行为对应急资源调度方案的制定有着重要的影响。

Super-network model of emergency resource scheduling considering multi-agent psychological effect

In order to study impact of different personnel’s psychological effects on emergency resource scheduling process,super-network tool was used to quantitatively describe interaction between different attributes of emergency network under coordinated operation of differentiated emergency agents.Meanwhile,in view of contradiction between supply and demand in actual scheduling process,behavioral science theory was introduced to quantify regrets of decision makers and disappointment of victims,and was integrated into optimal scheduling of emergency resources.Finally,a super-network model for scheduling was established with scheduling time,emergency cost and rescue utility as objective functions,and the model was transformed into an equivalent form of variational inequality before it was solved by utilizing modified projection algorithm.The results show that the model can effectively solve problems in emergency resource coordination and scheduling under psychological effects of multiple agents.Correlation degree of emergency subject,disaster risk degree,regret psychology and regret avoidance behavior of decision-makers as well as disappoint psychology and disappointment avoidance behavior of victims all have important influence on formulation of emergency resource scheduling scheme.